On November 18, 2025, a coalition of international human rights groups delivered an 82-page dossier to the International Criminal Court in The Hague, demanding a formal investigation into Samia Suluhu Hassan, President of Tanzania, for alleged crimes against humanity committed during the violent crackdown following the country’s October 29, 2025 general election. The evidence, compiled by South Africa’s Intelwatch, Spain’s Madrid Bar Association, the World Jurist Association, and anonymous Tanzanian organizations, claims security forces deliberately killed between 700 and 3,000 protesters between October 30 and November 6, 2025 — a toll far exceeding official estimates. The dossier alleges these killings were not accidental crowd control failures, but systematic executions carried out under direct orders from the highest levels of government, including President Hassan herself, who reportedly authorized security agencies to "take all actions."
"This Was Not Crowd Control — It Was Deliberate Killing"
The evidence includes dozens of photographs and video timestamps showing Tanzanian police and military personnel firing without warning into crowds, often aiming at chests and heads. In multiple clips, officers continued shooting as protesters fled, a pattern the dossier describes as "extermination," one of the ICC’s most serious crimes. One analyst from the Madrid Bar Association told reporters: "You don’t need to be a forensic expert to see this. These weren’t panicked shots. These were aimed, coordinated, and sustained." The report also names four top officials for complicity: Dar es Salaam Regional Police Commander, Chief of Defense Forces, Inspector-General of Police, and Director General of the National Intelligence Service. None have been publicly charged, but the dossier includes internal communications allegedly linking them to operational orders.A Contested Election and a Nation on Edge
The violence erupted after President Hassan was declared the winner of the October 29 election with over 97% of the vote — a result widely dismissed as implausible by independent observers. The two main opposition parties, including Chadema, had their candidates disqualified on technical grounds just weeks before voting. The African Union’s election monitoring team later confirmed the vote "failed to meet democratic standards," citing ballot stuffing, voter suppression, and media blackouts. In response, tens of thousands took to the streets in Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, and Arusha. For three days, protesters clashed with security forces. Hundreds were arrested. At least 12 were charged with treason — a crime punishable by death under Tanzanian law. Many remain in detention without trial.President Hassan’s Response: Inquiry, Forgiveness, and Accusations
On November 15, 2025, President Hassan addressed parliament, announcing a national commission of inquiry into the deaths. "We will find out exactly how many were lost," she said. She also acknowledged Chadema’s calls for constitutional reform, pledging to begin changes within her first 100 days. "For those who were just following the wave," she added, "let them be counselled and released. As a mother, I have forgiven those who joined out of peer pressure." But her tone shifted sharply in a December 3, 2025 interview with WION. "Most of the demonstrators kept gaining momentum and heading in the wrong direction," she said. "Our police forces were forced to employ substantial force. We witnessed similar things in other nations. Now, when they accuse us of using too much force, what exactly did they expect us to do?" She went further, claiming protesters were paid: "Where did this money come from?" — a line echoed by state media, though no evidence has been presented.International Reactions and the Shadow of the ICC
The European Union suspended all non-humanitarian aid to Tanzania on November 20, 2025, citing "grave human rights violations." The United States and Canada have issued travel advisories and are reviewing military cooperation. Meanwhile, Tanzania may be preparing to withdraw from the Rome Statute, the treaty that created the ICC. According to All Africa, President Hassan has privately urged lawmakers to begin the process, arguing the court targets African leaders unfairly. This mirrors actions taken by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, which in September 2025 established the Sahel International Court — a regional body meant to replace the ICC for African cases.What’s Next? Protests Loom on Independence Day
Opposition groups have vowed to return to the streets on December 9, 2025 — Tanzania’s Independence Day — despite President Hassan’s plea for calm. "This isn’t about politics," said one underground activist in Dar es Salaam, speaking anonymously. "It’s about bodies in the morgue. It’s about children who won’t see their fathers again. We’re not going to stay silent." The ICC has not yet opened a formal investigation. As of December 5, 2025, the prosecutor’s office confirmed it has received the dossier and is conducting a preliminary review. That process can take months. But if the court finds sufficient evidence of systematic, state-directed killings, charges could follow — making President Hassan the first sitting African head of state to face potential ICC prosecution since Omar al-Bashir.Why This Matters Beyond Tanzania
This isn’t just about one country’s election. It’s about whether international justice can hold power accountable — or if authoritarianism will continue to outmaneuver global institutions. If the ICC ignores this case, African nations may see it as confirmation that the court is a tool of Western influence. If it acts, it risks alienating key partners — but upholds its mandate. Tanzania’s next moves will be watched closely. Will the national inquiry be credible? Will the ICC act? And will December 9 bring more bloodshed — or a moment of reckoning?Frequently Asked Questions
What evidence does the ICC have to consider in this case?
The dossier includes 82 pages of photographic evidence, video timestamps, witness testimonies from medical personnel and journalists, internal government communications allegedly linking senior officials to kill orders, and forensic analysis of bullet trajectories showing deliberate targeting. Independent experts verified the authenticity of over 40 video clips. The ICC’s preliminary review will assess whether this meets the threshold for a full investigation under the Rome Statute.
Could President Hassan be arrested if the ICC opens a case?
Yes — but only if Tanzania remains a member of the Rome Statute. The ICC can issue an arrest warrant, but it relies on member states to enforce it. If Tanzania withdraws, the court loses jurisdiction unless the UN Security Council refers the case. Even then, enforcement would require cooperation from countries where Hassan travels — a political hurdle.
How many people have actually died, and why is there such a wide range?
The 700–3,000 range reflects the lack of official transparency. The government has acknowledged only 17 deaths. Human rights groups, using hospital records, funeral home logs, and eyewitness accounts, estimate at least 700. The higher figure includes unreported cases in rural areas, bodies removed by security forces, and families too afraid to report losses. The true toll may never be known unless independent investigators are granted access.
What’s the role of the African Union in this situation?
The African Union condemned the flawed election but has stopped short of condemning the violence. It has not supported the ICC investigation, reflecting broader African skepticism about the court’s selectivity. Some AU members fear setting a precedent that could be used against their own leaders. The AU’s silence has emboldened Tanzania’s government, while human rights groups accuse it of prioritizing sovereignty over human rights.
Is there any chance the national inquiry will be credible?
Most international observers doubt it. The inquiry is being led by government appointees, with no independent oversight or victim representation. Past Tanzanian inquiries into security force abuses — like those after the 2015 elections — have produced no convictions. Without international monitoring, transparency, or access to evidence, this probe is widely seen as a delaying tactic.
What happens if protests erupt again on December 9?
If security forces respond with lethal force again, it could trigger immediate sanctions from the EU and US, and possibly a UN Security Council referral to the ICC. It would also galvanize regional activists and make it harder for Tanzania to justify its withdrawal from the Rome Statute. For President Hassan, it risks cementing her legacy as a leader who chose repression over reform.
1 Responses
This isn’t just about Tanzania-it’s about the quiet complicity of global powers who turn away when it’s convenient. We cheer for democracy in one breath and sell arms to regimes in the next. The ICC has a chance to prove it’s not just a Western theater. If they let this slide, they’re not just failing Tanzania-they’re burying the very idea of accountability.
And let’s be real: no one believes that ‘national inquiry’ is anything but a delay tactic. They’ve done this before. Bodies disappear. Families are scared silent. The truth doesn’t need a commission-it needs witnesses who aren’t afraid to speak.
I’ve met Tanzanian students in Delhi who still whisper about the disappearances. They don’t talk loud, but their eyes say everything. This isn’t politics. It’s grief with no outlet.