F-35 and F-16 Back on the Table as Trump Hosts Erdogan at the White House

White House meeting aims to reset ties — with fighter jets and big contracts in play

Donald Trump says he will welcome Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the White House on September 25, a high-stakes meeting that could reopen doors on defense deals worth billions and test how far Washington and Ankara can repair a bruised partnership. The timing, right after both leaders attend the UN General Assembly in New York, gives them a global stage and a tight window to show progress.

Trump announced the visit on Truth Social, stressing his personal rapport with Erdogan. Turkish officials sounded upbeat too, framing the trip as a chance to unlock defense and trade issues that have piled up since 2019. At the center: Turkey’s ejection from the F-35 program over its purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defenses, and whether there’s a path back.

Expect a broad agenda. Beyond fighter jets, both sides are talking about a potential F-16 package, a “large scale” order of Boeing aircraft, and a sweep of defense-industrial projects that Turkey has struggled to move forward without U.S. parts and approvals. Erdogan also wants to link any progress to a bigger picture: de-escalation in the region and a clearer role for Ankara in U.S. strategy.

There’s friction too, especially on Gaza. Ankara has condemned Israel’s military campaign and slammed Trump’s earlier talk about removing Palestinians from the enclave to remake it as a “Riviera of the Middle East.” That dispute won’t be solved in one meeting, but it will shape the optics — and the domestic politics on both sides.

Still, both leaders have a reason to try. Turkey sits at the hinge of Europe, the Middle East, and the Black Sea. It hosts U.S. forces, controls access to the Black Sea straits, and has leverage in Syria, the Caucasus, and the Mediterranean. Rebuilding a working rhythm helps NATO and gives industry and markets a clearer line of sight.

What’s at stake: jets, engines, and leverage

The F-35 fight is the biggest political and technical knot. The U.S. froze Turkey out of the fifth-generation jet in 2019 after Ankara took delivery of the S-400. Washington said the Russian system could expose F-35 secrets. Ankara said that was fixable and offered a technical commission to prove it. The stalemate has lingered for years, and Turkey has long argued it met its obligations and should be either reinstated or compensated.

Under the hood is a tangle of law and alliance politics. The U.S. Congress tied Russia-related defense purchases to automatic sanctions under CAATSA in 2017, which hit Turkey in 2020. Bringing Turkey back to the F-35 would likely require either removing or mothballing the S-400, inspections to verify it’s not integrated into Turkish networks, and a green light from lawmakers who have been wary. None of that is easy.

F-16s are the more immediate valve. Turkey has sought new F-16 Block 70 jets and upgrade kits to keep its fleet modern. Parts of that package advanced in recent years, but Ankara still wants more airframes, spares, weapons, and faster timelines. Trump signaled a “major F-16 deal” is on the table, which would give Turkey near-term capability while the F-35 question sits in the background.

Then there’s Boeing. A large civilian aircraft purchase would boost U.S. manufacturing and offer Ankara better terms for its airlines — and give both leaders a headline number to sell back home. These commercial deals often move separately from defense, but they create momentum and political cover.

Ankara also has a shopping list of U.S. components tied to its own programs. Its new KAAN fighter needs F110 engines from GE to keep development on schedule. The HURJET trainer is built around F404 engines. The T-70 helicopter program with Sikorsky still has deliveries to complete. Progress on these would relieve pressure on Turkey’s defense industry and send a signal that supply lines are opening again.

Turkey’s argument is blunt: a stronger Turkish air force helps NATO. The country has flown combat missions with the alliance, hosts radar sites, and sits next to conflict zones that spill over fast. Turkish officials say sidelining a major NATO air arm makes no sense when Europe is rearming and the Middle East is unstable.

Washington’s case is just as direct: rules matter. Buying a Russian strategic air-defense system while trying to plug into allied stealth networks crosses a line. U.S. officials say any fix must include clear steps on the S-400 and tight safeguards to protect sensitive tech. They also want Ankara to pull closer on issues from Syria to sanctions enforcement.

That’s why this meeting could be more about mapping a process than signing a single big deal. A realistic outcome would be a joint statement that lays out working groups, timelines, and conditions — for example, a phased F-16 package, targeted export approvals for engines and avionics, and technical talks on the S-400 that test whether trust can be rebuilt.

The Gaza rift could still complicate everything. Turkey has called Israel’s actions genocide and pushed for international measures against the Israeli government. Trump’s own remarks about Gaza have drawn intense criticism. Any defense breakthrough will have to survive that political storm, especially in Congress, where votes are tight and optics matter.

Trade will be a parallel track. Both sides have floated big targets before, including the idea of pushing bilateral trade far above current levels. Removing specific tariffs, clearing customs snags, and giving civil aviation financing a nudge would move the needle faster than grand promises. Business groups in both countries are ready, if the politics cool down.

The personal factor is the wild card. Trump and Erdogan have managed to cut deals in tense moments before, even as their governments clashed over Syria, sanctions, and the courts. If that chemistry holds, they could kick-start files that have sat idle for years. If not, the same disputes will drift into yet another cycle.

Here’s what to watch as September 25 approaches:

• Language on the F-35: Do they mention a pathway, a technical review, or compensation? Vague lines suggest more time is needed; specific steps hint at real movement.
• F-16 scope and pace: Numbers, upgrade kits, and delivery schedules will show whether Ankara gets what it wants now, or later.
• Engines and parts: Any approval for KAAN’s F110 engines or HURJET’s F404s would be a practical test of trust.
• Boeing orders: A civilian aircraft announcement would offer an easy win and jobs messaging in the U.S.
• Gaza language: Even careful wording will signal whether the two leaders can park disagreements long enough to do business.

A quick recap of how we got here helps frame the stakes:

• 2017: Turkey agrees to buy Russia’s S-400 system; CAATSA becomes law in the U.S.
• 2019: Ankara receives S-400 deliveries; Washington removes Turkey from the F-35 supply chain.
• 2020: U.S. imposes CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s defense procurement agency.
• 2021–2024: Talks pivot to F-16 sales and upgrades; some progress, but terms and timing remain sensitive.
• 2025: Trump announces Erdogan’s White House visit, putting the jet question back in the spotlight.

Beyond hardware, there’s strategy. The U.S. wants stable basing and predictable cooperation on Syria, where Washington works with Kurdish-led forces that Ankara sees as a threat. Turkey wants recognition of its security concerns, fewer export hurdles, and more say in energy and maritime issues in the Eastern Med. Neither side will get everything. Both may get enough.

Turkey’s defense push adds urgency. Without steady access to Western engines, sensors, and weapons, timelines slip. Domestic substitutes help, but they don’t replace decades of U.S. know-how overnight. Clearing even a few bottlenecks would make a visible difference to Ankara’s programs and test whether the ice is truly melting.

The politics are tricky at home too. In Washington, any reset with Ankara triggers questions about human rights, the rule of law, and Russia. In Ankara, concessions on the S-400 or policy shifts on Gaza could spark backlash. That’s why both leaders keep pointing to bigger prizes — air power, trade, and alliance cohesion — to justify the risk.

One more dynamic: NATO’s changing map. With Europe rearming and the Black Sea more tense, Turkey’s geography is priceless. A functional U.S.-Turkey channel gives the alliance more options, from missile defense to logistics. If that channel clogs, workarounds get slower and costlier.

So, watch for signals, not just signatures. A careful phrase about technical talks can be as telling as a contract figure. A small export approval can carry more meaning than a sweeping pledge. In this relationship, the follow-through after the handshake matters most.